Britain and its allies may face a “reckoning” as a new generation of potential terrorists are radicalised over the war in the Middle East, the head of MI6 has warned.
Sir Richard Moore, also known as “C”, said the world was in a more dangerous state than it has been in four decades and the threats facing Europe “could hardly be more serious”.
In a speech at the British embassy in Paris, he said that if President Putin and his “morally bankrupt axis of aggression” were able to reduce Ukraine to a vassal state, “he will not stop there”.
“Our security — British, French, European and transatlantic — will be jeopardised,” he said.
“The cost of supporting Ukraine is well known, but the cost of not doing so would be infinitely higher,” he said. Some nations fear if Putin wins in Ukraine he could push into countries in Nato’s eastern flank next, such as the Baltic States.
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Moore and his French counterpart, Nicolas Lerner, head of the DGSE intelligence service, were giving their first lecture on the future of the Entente Cordiale, 120 years since the Anglo-French diplomatic agreement was first signed.
The lecture comes amid nervousness in the European intelligence agencies and militaries that Donald Trump may withdraw support from Ukraine when he becomes president of the United States for a second term on January 20. Trump has maintained a cosy relationship with Putin, whom he has described as a “genius”, and has said he could solve the Ukraine war in one day.
Moore, the chief of the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS), a former ambassador who became C in October 2020, said: “In 37 years in the intelligence profession I’ve never seen the world in a more dangerous state. And the impact on Europe, our shared European home, could hardly be more serious.”
With regards to the conflict in Gaza, he said: “We have yet to have a full reckoning with the radicalising impact of the fighting, the terrible loss of innocent life in the Middle East and the horrors of October 7.”
He said that the “menace of terrorism has not gone away” and after retreating in Syria and Iraq, Islamic State was again expanding its reach, inflicting deadly attacks in both Iran and Russia.
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Sir John Sawers, a former head of MI6, has previously warned that the return of Islamic extremist terror attacks on British soil could be prompted by the killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders. He said police and spy agencies in Britain should be “on their toes” after changes of leadership in the Middle East.
Last October Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, said his domestic spy agency was monitoring for increased risks to the UK as the war continued.
Since then thousands of people have been killed in Lebanon after exchanges of rocket fire escalated into a full-blown war, with a 60-day truce agreed this week.
In Russia, Putin’s troops are continuing to gain ground in the eastern Donbas region and the offensive into Russia’s Kursk region failed to draw enough Russian troops away from the front line. There are fears that Ukrainian troops are facing their harshest winter in three years as Putin takes out energy infrastructure using hundreds of drones.
Moore said that Ukraine has “the will to win” but that Britain and the West acknowledged they needed to “do more to help”. Some former military chiefs have expressed concerns that the West is giving Ukraine enough weapons to fight but not to win, which one former military chief said was “immoral”.
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“We have a war on European soil … Nicolas and I are in no doubt about the stakes in Ukraine: if Putin is allowed to succeed in reducing Ukraine to a vassal state he will not stop there,” Moore said.
He warned that if Putin was to succeed then China would “weigh the implications”, North Korea would be emboldened and Iran would become more dangerous. There are fears about Iran’s nuclear ambitions as well as concerns about acts of sabotage in Europe carried out by Russia. Military chiefs have warned of all four nations coming together to wage war in the future.
This week the head of Germany’s foreign intelligence service said Russia’s acts of sabotage against western targets may eventually prompt Nato to consider invoking the alliance’s Article 5 mutual defence clause.
Speaking at an event of the DGAP think tank in Berlin on Wednesday, Bruno Kahl, chief of the German Federal Intelligence Service, said he expected Moscow to escalate its hybrid warfare.
Under the Labour government, the UK has been trying to improve its relationship with France and other European allies, especially when it comes to co-operation on security.
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The re-election of Trump, who may push the US to be more isolationist, is likely to encourage European allies to work more closely together than they have in recent years, especially when it comes to Ukraine.
“Together as allies our collective strengths will outmatch and outlast Putin’s morally bankrupt axis of aggression,” Moore said. “The 120 years of the Entente Cordiale remind us of the deep roots of our friendship and how often we have risen to even graver challenges with courage, determination and ingenuity.”